Archive - Nov 2, 2010


Policy update 11/2/10: Election Day


Today's elections will have major implications for our work on federal climate and energy policy. Elections are being held for all 435 House seats, 37 Senate seats, and 37 governorships. With many races polling at slim margins, voter turnout is expected to make or break the election for many candidates.

Election Day: Tuesday, November 2nd

Overall Election Outlook:

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight model projects the following election day outcomes based on recent polling:

  • A 91% chance that the Senate will remain in Democratic control. Polls suggest the most likely outcome is a seven-seat swing, resulting in a 52-48 Democratic Senate;
  • An 84% chance that the House will flip toward Republican control. Polls suggest the most likely outcome is a 52-seat swing (Republicans need 38 for a majority) resulting in a 232-203 Republican House (the House is currently 255-178).

Stressing uncertainty in the models, and the competitiveness of this year's races, Nate Silver notes a number of caveats in his forecasts, stressing uncertainty on both sides of the equation:

  • If polls are off by just a couple of percentage points, the Democrats may keep the House and a substantial Senate majority;
  • However, for a number of reasons Republicans could possibly make larger gains than predicted, also due to uncertainty in polling.
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