In the wake of an 11-1 vote in the Environment and Public Works (EPW) committee, Senate climate legislation continues to move forward. Health care is taking center-stage at the moment, but engagement on climate is still high. Senators Kerry, Graham, and Lieberman are working with the White House and swing senators to move forward with a bill capable of amassing broad support, and 1Sky is pushing to maintain some of the important victories achieved in the EPW bill.

1. Senate Timing

With the holiday season approaching, the Senate has a maximum of 4.5 more weeks of session before winter recess.

• Senate Thanksgiving Recess: Nov. 23 - Nov. 27
• Senate in Session (likely working on health care): Nov. 30 - Dec. 23
• UN Climate Negotiations in Copenhagen COP15 Negotiations: Dec. 7 - Dec. 18
• Senate Winter Recess (projected): Dec. 24 - Jan. 4, 2010

While Senate action moves slowly forward, 1Sky is calling for President Obama to "step up" on climate by pushing the Senate, and going to Copenhagen. Hundreds of 1Sky volunteers are gathering with friends and neighbors to make art for the climate, urging Senators to pass a strong bill, and urging Presidents Obama to help them out.

2. Kerry-Boxer passed out of EPW committee, but more pieces of the legislation have yet to be added

On Thursday, November 5th, the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee passed their version of the Kerry-Boxer Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act (S. 1733) by a vote of 11-1 (You can read 1Sky's analysis and recommendations for the bill at www.1sky.org/s1733). Strong climate champs on the committee enabled the bill to pass with support from moderates like Arlen Specter (D-PA), and key provisions like strong coal-fired power plant performance standards that allow the EPA to ensure that the dirtiest, oldest, and most hazardous coal-fired power plants must update their technology and ensures there are no loopholes in regulatory standards and stronger emissions targets of 20% reductions by the year 2020, despite concerted efforts to weaken these targets by the opposition. These victories were foreshadowed in the hearings, where our champs came out in strong support of them.

The inclusion of these two provisions are major victories for clean energy advocates. Important to note, however, is that due to the Inhofe (R-OK)-led boycott of the markup, the EPW committee was not able to take up discussion of any amendments that were introduced by EPW Senators. Some of these amendments would have strengthened the bill, while others would have made it less effective. Some amendments that weren’t discussed due to the boycott included:

• An amendment supported by Senators Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), that would have required electric utilities to use one-third of the allowances they are given for free to invest in energy efficiency measures. This amendment, strongly supported by 1Sky, would create hundreds of thousands of clean energy jobs retrofitting homes and building more efficient buildings, as well as provide a much needed investment in the "low-hanging fruit" of energy efficiency. More about the benefits of this amendment and a list of its supporters can be found on Environment America's website.
• An amendment introduced by Senator Max Baucus (D-MT) that would have established a "dual target" for short term emissions reductions. This amendment would have changed the short term target to 17% reductions by 2020, with a caveat that the Senate and President could elect to raise the target should major emitters such as China and India agree to binding emissions reductions targets. 1Sky does not support this amendment as it would weaken the effectiveness of climate legislation to build a clean energy economy and would not reduce the amount of carbon pollution sufficiently to tackle the climate crisis.
• An amendment on domestic agriculture and forestry that was written by the office of Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) was also planned to be introduced by Senator Baucus. The amendment, which would add the 65-page Clean Energy Partnerships Act of 2009 to the Kerry-Boxer bill and creates a domestic offsets program and provides funding for other domestic agriculture programs that reduce emissions or enhance carbon sequestration in the agriculture and forestry sectors, is likely to continue to be a part of the conversation moving forward, just as Rep. Collin Peterson's (D-MN) Agriculture Committee amendments in the House were important in passing the ACES bill this past summer.

1Sky expects that similar amendments will be introduced on the Senate floor (or as part of the "dual track") as climate negotiations continue. Champion senators – with help from the grassroots – must continue to stand up for clean energy investments, strong targets, and performance standards for old coal plants.

3. Senate Action before Christmas?

Key Senate Democrats have been telling reporters that they do not expect to see any more major Committee action on a climate bill through the end of 2009. Sen. Baucus, who chairs the Senate Finance Committee, told reporters, "It's common understanding that climate change legislation will not be brought up on the Senate floor and pass the Senate this year." This seems to imply that the Finance Committee, which is a crucial stepping stone for the Kerry-Boxer bill to pass before it can be debated on the Senate floor, will not be marking up the bill before the end of the year.

Senator Tom Carper (D-DE) similarly told reporters, "I wouldn't want to bet my paycheck that all the relevant committees will report out legislation by the end of this year". Senator John Kerry (D-MA), who along with Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) plays a large part in determining the timing of when this legislation will be debated, told reporters that (subs. req'd), "I don't see [a bill passing with 60 votes] happening before Christmas… I think that's going to be a tall order, given the health care debate and the schedules of the committee. But I do see it happening in short order. I see nobody who's delaying it on our side, anyway. I don't see any process that's going to inhibit getting into the early part of the year and getting it done. I think we're on track."

The timing of Committee action on the Kerry-Boxer bill is now viewed as a little less important, now that the Kerry-Graham-Lieberman "dual track" is in the works (see below).

4. Kerry-Graham-Lieberman "Dual Track"

The "dual track" for climate legislation led by Senators John Kerry, Lindsey Graham (R-SC), and Joe Lieberman (I-CT) will run parallel to the typical "regular order" committee process used to craft most bills. The team, which is aiming to build bipartisan support for a bill that would cap carbon emissions while expanding nuclear energy and oil drilling, has been receiving input from the White House and is currently charting a path to 60 votes.

"I'm very hopeful we're going to slowly put things together," Kerry told reporters mid-last week (subs. req'd), "The main thing to do here is to build the adequate base of support and consensus, and that requires sitting with people and working it through. If you get into an artificial timeline, then you don't give people the opportunity to feel they're being listened to or their ideas are being processed."

5. Health Care + Financial Regulatory Reform Timing

The Senate has their plate full with other domestic policy objectives beyond a climate and clean energy bill. Now that the House has passed a health care reform bill, all eyes turn to the timing of a Senate health care bill. Majority Leader Reid promised the President this past week that the Senate would vote on the health care bill by Christmas, but some sources insist there may not be sixty votes by December, causing a vote on the legislation to spill over into 2010. Majority Leader Reid has filed a motion to introduce his bill on Monday, November 16th, after which a timeline for Senate action should be more clear.

Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee Chris Dodd (D-CT) introduced a 1,100+ page bill on Tuesday, November 10th that would overhaul the financial regulatory system. Sen. Dodd has not yet found a Republican counterpart to support his legislation (talks with Banking Committee ranking member Senator Richard Shelby (R-AL) fell through) and many moderate and conservative Democrats are likely to need convincing to support the legislation, as they have extensive ties to industry groups that are opposed to the bill. Like the climate bill, financial regulatory reform is likely to be considered in early 2010 and it is likely that the first bill with a realistic possibility to get sixty votes will be voted on first.

6. Copenhagen Outlook – Two Weeks Out

In the finals weeks before the Copenhagen negotiations, all eyes are on the Obama Administration and other developed countries' negotiators to see if there will be any sort of agreement coming out of the talks. President Obama told Reuters in an interview on Monday, November 9th that "he would travel to Copenhagen next month if a climate summit is on the verge of a framework deal and his presence there will make a difference in clinching it." In the interview, President Obama also told the reporter, "I think the question is can we create a set of principles, building blocks, that allow for ongoing and continuing progress on the issue and that's something I'm confident we can achieve [in Copenhagen]." 1Sky believes very strongly that President Obama should attend the Copenhagen talks in order to signal to clean energy opponents in the Senate that he is serious about achieving a global climate treaty now.

The President is currently on a week-long trip to Asia, where many clean energy advocates are hoping that he and Chinese President Hu Jintao will agree to some sort of bilateral climate agreement, although Todd Stern, U.S. Special Envoy for Climate Change, was not optimistic, telling reporters, "I don't think we are getting any agreement per se." Any bilateral agreement between the U.S. and China would be heralded as a breakthrough in the international climate stalemate, and 1Sky encourages both governments to try and find common ground on funding for clean energy technology transfer, carbon capture and storage, and climate impact adaptation, while ensuring a strategy for real emissions reductions by the Chinese.

Meanwhile, the New York Times reported on Saturday, November 14th that “President Obama and other world leaders have decided to put off the difficult task of reaching a climate change agreement at a global climate conference scheduled for next month, agreeing instead to make it the mission of the Copenhagen conference to reach a less specific “politically binding” agreement that would punt the most difficult issues into the future.”

7. What's the path to passing a climate bill that's as strong as possible?

Pundits and advocates alike are trying to figure out what the Senate schedule looks like for the next few months. With the 2010 election approaching, conventional wisdom suggests that major legislation like healthcare, climate, and financial reform will have to get wrapped up by the spring, in time for members to campaign for re-election. The time for action on climate is right now.

The Kerry-Graham-Lieberman "dual-track" creates opportunities for achieving quick consensus in time to pass a bill, but leaves us vulnerable to weakening. We'll need to keep the pressure on swing Senators to reduce their ability to bargain for a weaker bill. The EPW process showed us that champions can make a difference, and that grassroots pressure is necessary to support their work. We need to make sure our champs feel supported, if we want them to keep pushing for strong provisions in the final bill. We are working hard to preserve Clean Air Act authority to regulate dirty coal and have worked with allies to form a growing block of Senators who will stand strong to support it.

President Obama is our biggest ace in the hole. His election was enough to jump-start the legislative process earlier in the year, but we need him to step up and lead the Senate if we are going to pass a strong bill, or get a global climate deal.

Prepared by Ben Wessel and Jason Kowalski from 1Sky’s policy team. Please direct questions or comments to jason@1sky.org.