DC Hill Update 11/23: Senate Climate Bill Scheduled to Pass by "Early Spring"

Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Senator John Kerry (D-MA) announced last week that the window for moving a climate bill onto the Senate floor has moved into early 2010, as the battle to pass health care reform (see below) and financial regulatory reform spills over into the new year. With multiple plans for climate action emerging from the Senate, 1Sky is continuing to urge the president and Senate leaders to lead on passing a strong bill and protect key provisions already included in committee-passed legislation.

1. Climate Bill Timing

With the holiday season approaching, the Senate has a maximum of 3.5 more weeks of session before winter recess.

• Senate Thanksgiving Recess: Nov. 23 - Nov. 27
• Senate in Session (likely working on health care): Nov. 30 - Dec. 23
• UN Climate Negotiations in Copenhagen COP15 Negotiations: Dec. 7 - Dec.18
• Senate Winter Recess (projected): Dec. 24 - Jan. 4, 2010

While Senate action moves slowly forward, 1Sky is calling for President Obama to "step up" on climate by pushing the Senate, and going to Copenhagen. Hundreds of 1Sky volunteers are gathering with friends and neighbors in almost every state nationwide to make art for the climate, urging Senators to pass a strong bill, and urging Presidents Obama to help them out.

2. Senate Leaders Looking to Pass Climate Bill in "Early Spring"

Last Monday morning, Senator Kerry told reporters that the climate bill won't come to the full Senate floor until health care and financial regulatory reform have passed the chamber. After a meeting with the chairmen of the other Senate committees with jurisdiction over the climate bill, Kerry sounded optimistic about waiting until after financial regulatory reform to pass a climate bill, saying, "I think it would be good if we did that [regulatory reform] first because it helps to establish the rules of the marketplace which helps to establish the rest of it [cap-and-trade]." Reid similarly told reporters (subs. req'd), "We're going to try to do that [cap and trade] sometime in the Spring."

Pressure from climate champions in the Senate is mounting to tackle the climate bill as soon as possible and not allow the leadership to let it slip through the cracks in the legislative shuffle. Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) told reporters, "Conventional wisdom is that you have until the spring to get controversial issues moving...If not, it's difficult to see getting through closer to the elections."

Media reports have also surfaced that suggest the Senate could take up a "jobs bill" that would aim to lower the unemployment rate from its high of 10.2% this past month. It is unclear where such a bill would fall in the legislative pecking order. Majority Leader Reid told reporters that the climate bill would be a boon to the economy (subs. req'd), but did not specify whether it would be the "jobs bill" the chamber was looking for, saying "I think if we do it right, the energy bill, the climate bill can be very, very job productive." Kerry added, “If you want to do a jobs bill this is the bill to do… I would argue that with the president very very forcefully.”

3. Kerry-Graham-Lieberman Dual Track Negotiations

In the meantime, Senator Kerry will be working full-time with Senators Lindsay Graham (R-SC), Joe Lieberman (I-CT), and members of the Obama Administration including Carol Browner behind closed doors to author a bipartisan climate and energy compromise that would achieve the support of the needed 60 senators to break a filibuster.

Senators Kerry, Graham, and Lieberman are currently drafting a legislative blueprint for their climate bill. After releasing this blueprint, the tri-partisan team will then likely deliver a bill to Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) for his approval before sending it on to the Congressional Budget Office and U.S. EPA for up to five weeks of analysis.

The White House has been heavily involved in the Kerry-Graham-Lieberman conversations, and members of the administration are offering lots of strategy advice about reaching the goal of sixty senators. Carol Browner, the President's senior aide on climate and energy issues, told reporters (subs. req'd),

Sixty is always a tough number. But I, having worked on the Hill [as an aide to then then-Senator Al Gore], having helped to pass legislation, having done so when I was at EPA, it's a different tone. And I think that is cause for optimism. It won't be easy. But I think there's a pathway. I think there is a way to put together the components of what we want and meet the needs of enough senators to get a 60-vote margin.

E&E News reports (subs. req'd), "Asked about that timing, Browner said she expects to see Senate action in March or April. 'The good news is spring comes early in Washington, earlier and earlier with climate change,' she joked.

As this behind-the-scenes approach to climate legislation is pursued by leaders on the Hill and in the White House, it is imperative that climate champions in the Senate continue to be vocal about the key victories that were won in the EPW bill (see below). By bolstering support for these champion legislators, climate advocates can ensure that key provisions, such as a 20% short-term emissions reduction target and protection of the EPA's ability to regulate dirty coal plants, are included in the Kerry-Graham-Lieberman bill. 1Sky is mobilizing its grassroots and grasstops behind Senate champs in eight states to urge them to weigh in as a countervailing force against the trend towards the moderates.

4. Prospects for Kerry-Boxer

The Kerry-Boxer Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act (CEJAPA) that passed out of the Environment and Public Works Committee a couple of weeks ago is far from dead, however. Despite new developments on the Kerry-Graham-Lieberman front, the Kerry-Boxer bill is still the foundations of the "regular order" committee process (see 1Sky’s analysis of the Kerry-Boxer bill).

The next logical step for the Kerry-Boxer bill is for the Senate Finance Committee, chaired by Senator Max Baucus (D-MT), to markup the legislation. Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) noted that Baucus told her he would mark up a climate change bill in the Finance Committee in January. The Hill suggests by marking up the Kerry-Boxer legislation before committee work on the Kerry-Graham-Lieberman bill begins, "Baucus may be trying to lay down his legislative marker in the debate before it leaves him behind."

Senator Kerry also told reporters that Senator Baucus would take up the legislation by early next year, saying, “Max is dead set serious about getting this done early and reporting back to us." Baucus, however, was less forthcoming about his markup schedule (subs. req'd). "Sometime soon," he told reporters. "I don't have a date." Pressed for more specifics, Baucus replied, "I mean some time next year. The first part of next year. Put it that way."

5. Copenhagen in the Spotlight

President Obama and other world leaders thrust the Copenhagen international climate negotiations into the spotlight this week, after the President and his staff made many comments on the upcoming talks during his first official trip to Asia. At the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Singapore, US Deputy National Security Adviser Mike Froman told reporters, "There was an assessment by the leaders that it was unrealistic to expect a full, internationally legally-binding agreement to be negotiated between now and when Copenhagen starts in 22 days." The mainstream media immediately jumped on that quote and pronounced that all hopes for a deal in Copenhagen were over, but many sources close to the negotiations say, such as CAN-International's David Turnbull, say "rumors of Copenhagen's demise have been greatly exaggerated."

In China, President Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao released a joint statement outlining a plan for increased China-U.S. cooperation on energy and climate. As the Washington Post reports,

Buried in the text of Tuesday's joint declaration between President Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao was a hopeful clause about climate talks: The Obama administration is likely to offer emission-reduction targets at next month's climate summit [in Copenhagen], as long as the Chinese offer a proposal of their own.

For more on 1Sky's take on the proceedings in Asia and the prospects for movement in Copenhagen, check out our recent post.

6. EPA Holds Hearings on Rules for Big Polluters

The EPA held two hearings last week in Arlington, VA and Chicago, IL on the so-called "Big Polluters" rule, a proposed rule that would cap emissions from big industry and dirty coal using the EPA's authority under the Clean Air Act. Climate advocates organized events at both hearings and worked with the local communities to bring citizens to testify in favor of the rule and increased regulation of the dirtiest carbon polluters. Mary Anne Hitt of the Sierra Club reports on the hearing in Arlington, VA, "By 10 a.m. we had filled the hearing room with about 100 people. Of those who testified during the morning session, 75% supported the rule, and their testimony was eloquent."

7. Health Care Update

Senate Democrats won a crucial vote this past Saturday, mustering the 60 senators needed to begin discussion of the 2,014 page health care reform bill that was unveiled last Wednesday by Majority Leader Harry Reid. All 58 Senate Democrats, as well as Independent Senators Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), voted to start debate on the bill. Thirty-nine Republican Senators voted against the motion, with Senator George Voinovich (R-OH) absent. The bill would cover 94% of eligible Americans – 5 million fewer than the House bill – and cost $848 billion over 10 years, but reduce the deficit by $127 billion in that time. It is likely that the health care debate will stretch into early January.

8. A Holiday Season Without Pumpkin Pie?

This Center for American Progress piece documents "Global Warming's War on Pumpkin Pie."

Prepared by Ben Wessel, Nick Santos, and Jason Kowalski from 1Sky’s policy team. Please direct questions or comments to jason@1sky.org.