New poll: Perriello's climate vote not a political death sentence

The conventional wisdom inside some corners of the snowed-in Beltway for months has been that a vote in favor of cap and trade -- or any sort of comprehensive climate bill that sets a price on carbon -- is a quick ticket to political oblivion for anyone not in a safely Democratic seat. Thankfully, there’s a new poll out today (.pdf -- first reported on over at Swing State Project) that can hopefully show such wisdom to be as in touch with reality as industry-supported talking points on the practicality of "clean" coal technology.

The poll in question shows Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA-05) to be in a dead heat with two of his stronger Republican challengers and actually leading against several other Tea Party-supported candidates. Perriello, who represents a district that snuggles up against what is historically Virginia coal mining territory, was one of the surprise votes in favor of ACES back in June. Since that time, he has continued to surprise observers with his fairly progressive voting record despite the fact that he represents a district won by both George Bush and John McCain and that he barely managed to carry in 2008.

Of course, all politics is local, so there is obviously a lot more going on in this race than just overarching national themes. And a 44-44 and 41-41 tie with your two leading opponents respectively, is certainly indicative of a very hard and grueling race in the months ahead -- not an easy cakewalk to a second term. But considering the very conservative nature of Perriello’s district, no one is expecting Perriello to ever be significantly ahead, even if he goes on to victory in November. In fact, quite the contrary: a lot of DC hacks and so-called “experts” have already proclaimed Perriello’s demise due to his strong stance in favor of issues like cap and trade and clean energy jobs.

Obviously, this poll doesn’t prove anything about who’s ultimately going to win Perriello’s seat. Nor does it say without a doubt what the specific issues driving voters are. But it certainly does prove that taking a courageous vote in favor of real clean energy legislation, and then actually spending time talking to constituents about the real benefits of clean energy legislation -- millions of jobs created and improved national security through reduced dependence on foreign oil -- doesn’t hurt.